The G20 summit, held in Bali, India, on November 15-16, may be the most difficult since the annual summit in 2008. On the one hand, the world is facing multiple crises such as high inflation, declining economic growth, the war between Russia and Ukraine, energy and food shortages, the impact of climate change, the worsening of the Sino-US wrestling, and the endangered debt of some countries; on the other hand, indirectly caused by these crises, or the differences between countries that exacerbate these crises make it more difficult for countries to join forces to solve the crisis.
At this G20 summit, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the host, hopes to extend the spirit of ASEAN (ASEAN) seeking common ground while reserving differences to the G20. Earlier, he personally visited Russia and Ukraine and invited both parties to the conflict to attend the summit. He hopes that Russia will not be excluded and the West will not be offended, so that this year's G20 summit can achieve some results in an all-encompassing pattern.
The G20 crisis is intractable, and the negotiations at the UN climate conference are also very anxious, and the two sides are in a dilemma of negotiation. "We are heading for a global catastrophe." The stern words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a speech released 10 days ago set a hazy tone for the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) to be held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6 to 18.
Crisis unresolved
At present, the central banks of major economies, led by the United States, are rapidly raising interest rates to curb high inflation at home or in the region. But this kind of "cleaning the snow before the door" interest rate hike may put unnecessary pressure on the economy and cause a global recession. The World Bank warned in September that "highly synchronized tightening of monetary and fiscal policies could have a compounding effect of international spillovers that, in a highly integrated global economy, would have a greater impact on economic growth than could be expected from the aggregate impact of individual policy actions across countries. Disruption", noting that "these synchronized policies have the potential to cause a sharp setback in global growth, if not a direct global recession."
Interest rate hikes in developed countries (especially the United States) may also exacerbate inflation problems in some countries and even cause debt crises. According to an assessment by The Economist in July this year, 53 middle- or low-income countries with a total population of 1.4 billion in the world are in or at risk of debt distress. Since the beginning of this year, from Sri Lanka and Pakistan to Egypt and Kenya, all have turned to the International Monetary Bank (IMF) for help.
High energy and food prices caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war have also increased the burden on these countries and caused more severe hunger in the Horn of Africa countries that have been affected by climate change for years in recent years.
The G20, which accounts for more than 80% of the global economic output, more than 60% of the population, and more than 75% of the trade, was originally an appropriate occasion to relieve these risks and crises. For example, after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the G20 reached a consensus to suspend debt repayment (although the general analysis believes that this plan has limited effectiveness and has great room for improvement). But under today's differences among countries, it is lucky that the G20 summit did not show a clear break.
Claims negotiations are difficult
The issue of financial assistance for adaptation to climate change, especially compensation for irreversible climate damage, was on the negotiating agenda of COP27 for the first time. This demand mainly comes from poorer countries. According to the scientific consensus, rich countries, as the main responsible parties for climate change, are expected to act on this social and climate equity issue.
In 2009, they pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year to help the countries of the South adapt to climate change. But that figure has not been reached. In a recent report, the United Nations Environment Programme warned: "International financial flows to developing countries for adaptation to climate change are only one-tenth to one-fifth of projected needs, and the gap is growing." And developed countries currently have no joint financial commitments to compensate for irreversible losses. At COP27, the situation may change, as the issue is on the agenda.
Some funding commitments have been made by individual governments - $50 million in Austria, $12 million in New Zealand, £5 million in Scotland, and $2.5 million in Belgium, but that is a drop in the bucket. At this stage, it is unclear how they will be incorporated into the loss and damage financing mechanism being negotiated, which could be a key area of negotiation in the coming years.
Developing countries unite
As at previous climate summits, the most contentious issue is climate finance from developed to developing countries. In a year of worsening disasters due to climate change, developing countries showed a unanimous stance on funding needs, including loss and damage, in the first week of the summit. Developed countries continue to reject such demands.
India's environment minister, Bhupender Yadav, told chinadialogue that India fully supports other developing countries' demands for climate finance, including the creation of a separate fund to pay for loss and damage. Pakistan, which suffered devastating floods this year, has expressed this demand most forcefully. In a rare gesture, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the Pakistan Pavilion at the summit and backed the request. Pakistan also currently chairs the "Group of 77 and China". The group of more than 130 countries is advancing climate negotiations.
China's Great Power Wind
China's methane action plan has been finalized and is in the process of approval, Special Envoy Fan Xie Zhenhua told a World Bank side event. He revealed that the plan covers three sectors - energy, agriculture and waste management - and that preliminary targets have been identified. The targets are preliminary because China is still building a methane emissions monitoring system. He also confirmed that while China's nationally determined contribution target (NDC target) does not include methane, China's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 includes (non-carbon dioxide) greenhouse gases.
The preliminary development of the plan represents progress on a commitment in the joint declaration on climate action reached by China and the United States at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow last year. In the declaration, China agreed to develop a national action plan on "controlling and reducing methane emissions in the 2020s" by COP27.
Li Shuo, senior global policy adviser at Greenpeace East Asia, told reporters: "It is encouraging that the Chinese government has made progress on the methane plan, which I hope will be released during this conference."
It is better for all parties in the differences to be willing to talk and able to talk than not to talk and not to talk. Although the G20 at this moment cannot solve the global problems that need to be solved urgently at present, and may eventually end unhappily, for countries in the world that are facing multiple crises and even a new Cold War pattern, an international structure like the G20 is better than nothing after all.
