Bangkok Post, October 3 (Bangkok Post) -- Thailand's Energy Regulatory Commission has started drafting standards for clean energy providers to promote renewable energy.
Imported natural gas dominates Thailand's energy system. Over the next 25 years, this will change dramatically, as Thailand moves towards an energy system that generates 66% of its energy without carbon emissions and is able to import electricity from neighboring countries. Solar is expected to account for the lion's share of new capacity, growing from 4% of installed capacity today to 30% by 2040.
By 2040, Thailand's electricity demand will increase by 47%, and electricity consumption will increase from 166TWh in 2015 to 244TWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%. Thailand's total power generation capacity will double from 2015 levels to 92GW by 2040, with 67GW of net new capacity added. At the same time, 18.5GW of thermal power facilities will be decommissioned, mainly gas-fired power plants (15.8GW). Pv will account for 39 per cent of the 67GW of new capacity. By 2040, PV capacity will surge tenfold to 27.8GW, accounting for 30% of total installed capacity.
By 2040, renewable and imported electricity will more than quadruple, accounting for 60% of total generation. The share of thermal power will fall from 82 per cent in 2015 to 37 per cent, driven by a 66 per cent drop in natural gas use. By 2040, natural gas will account for only 17% of electricity generation.
Photovoltaic and wind power currently cost more than $120 per megawatt hour, higher than coal and natural gas. But as installations grow and advanced technologies develop, the cost of kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of photovoltaic and wind power will fall below $100 per megawatt hour by 2025 and 2030, respectively, lower than the cost of oil and coal power.
Generally speaking, in order to ensure the stability of power supply, the Thai government should establish a sound power input mechanism, continue to take the road of energy conservation, and carry out macro-control according to the actual situation, such as raising the electricity price, to reduce or control extravagance and waste. Although thermal power generation is still the main power generation mode in Thailand in the short term, the output of renewable energy and clean energy power generation is increasing. Renewable energy power generation is the future development trend of Thailand's power industry.
Khomgrich, the commission's secretary general, said that between 2022 and 2030, National Grid would buy 5.2 gigawatts of electricity from qualified renewable power plants, They are biogas (335 megawatts), wind power (1,500 megawatts), ground solar power (2,368 megawatts) and ground solar power with energy storage (1,000 megawatts). The commission plans to start the bidding process in November-December, announce the results in January and release the final results in May or June next year after verification. The official power supply period is expected to be 2024-2030. The commission hopes to generate a total of 200 billion baht in clean energy investment. Thai energy companies have said they will participate in the tender.